This paper explores a heuristic—representativeness—according to which the subjective
probability of an event, or a sample, is determined by the degree to which it:(i) is similar in
essential characteristics to its parent population; and (ii) reflects the salient features of the
process by which it is generated. This heuristic is explicated in a series of empirical
examples demonstrating predictable and systematic errors in the evaluation of uncertain
events. In particular, since sample size does not represent any property of the population, it …