PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - John J. Spitzer AU - Jeffrey C. Strieter AU - Sandeep Singh TI - Adaptive Withdrawals AID - 10.3905/joi.2008.707222 DP - 2008 May 31 TA - The Journal of Investing PG - 104--113 VI - 17 IP - 2 4099 - https://pm-research.com/content/17/2/104.short 4100 - https://pm-research.com/content/17/2/104.full AB - A great deal of recent research has been devoted to the individual investor‖s question of “what is a safe amount to withdraw from my retirement portfolio?” Using bootstrap simulations and historical returns on stocks and on bonds for the period 1926 to 2003, the probabilities of running out of money over a 30-year period are calculated for two circumstances: 1) When a constant (real) amount is withdrawn and 2) when different amounts are withdrawn, dependent on the real rate of return in the preceding year. The results for the former provide a comprehensive and robust validation of the previous research on the topic. The results for the second indicate that some adaptive withdrawal rules can significantly enhance not only the amount of money able to be withdrawn but also decrease the likelihood of running out of money. A constant real withdrawal rate of 4% irrespective of investor risk tolerance and asset allocation consideration might not be the optimal withdrawal strategy.TOPICS: Retirement, wealth management, portfolio management/multi-asset allocation