%0 Journal Article
%A Stowe, John D.
%T A Market Timing Myth
%D 2000
%R 10.3905/joi.2000.319439
%J The Journal of Investing
%P 55-59
%V 9
%N 4
%X Several securities and plannig firms publish a demonstration of the dramatically reduced returms that an investor would see if the investor were out of the market for the 10, 20, 30, or 40 best days over a time period such as 5 to 10 years. They claim this is a demonstration of the pitfalls of market timing. As a counterexample, this article shows the dramatically enhanced returns if the investor is in cash for a similar number of the worst days. The probabilities of picking the best or worst days out of a larger number of days are shown to be minuscule. In fact, the probability of winning a lottery, or even several lotteries in a row, is better than the probability of replicating the investment results these firms are discussing.
%U https://joi.pm-research.com/content/iijinvest/9/4/55.full.pdf