RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Risk-Constrained Kelly Gambling
JF The Journal of Investing
FD Institutional Investor Journals
SP 118
OP 134
DO 10.3905/joi.2016.25.3.118
VO 25
IS 3
A1 Busseti, Enzo
A1 Ryu, Ernest K.
A1 Boyd, Stephen
YR 2016
UL http://joi.pm-research.com/content/25/3/118.abstract
AB The authors consider the classic Kelly gambling problem with general distribution of outcomes and an additional risk constraint that limits the probability of a drawdown of wealth to a given undesirable level. They develop a bound on the drawdown probability; using this bound instead of the original risk constraint yields a convex optimization problem that guarantees the drawdown risk constraint holds. Numerical experiments show that this bound on drawdown probability is reasonably close to the actual drawdown risk, as computed by Monte Carlo simulation. This method is parametrized by a single parameter that has a natural interpretation as a risk-aversion parameter, allowing the authors to systematically trade-off asymptotic growth rate and drawdown risk. Simulations show that this method yields bets that outperform fractional Kelly bets for the same drawdown risk level or growth rate. Finally, they show that a natural quadratic approximation of the convex problem is closely connected to the classical meanâ€“variance Markowitz portfolio selection problem.TOPICS: Simulations, risk management