PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Klaus Volpert TI - How Well Do Long-Term Bond Interest<br/>Rates Predict Stock Market Returns? AID - 10.3905/joi.2013.22.2.023 DP - 2013 May 31 TA - The Journal of Investing PG - 23--28 VI - 22 IP - 2 4099 - https://pm-research.com/content/22/2/23.short 4100 - https://pm-research.com/content/22/2/23.full AB - We observe that over the last 50 years, long-term interest rates in the U.S. have had a remarkable record of predicting stock-market returns, specifically in the 16- to 17-year range. We quantify this phenomenon and test via standard models and Monte Carlo simulations whether such a phenomenon is likely to arise by chance. We show that the probability for that is small, but not negligible.TOPICS: Performance measurement, simulations