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Primary Article

Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings Changes and the Performance of Swiss Stocks

Andreas Dische and Heinz Zimmermann
The Journal of Investing Spring 1999, 8 (1) 19-26; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.1999.319386
Andreas Dische
A doctoral student at the Universität St. Gallen, Switzerland, from which he holds a finance degree.
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Heinz Zimmermann
Professor of economics and finance at the Universität St. Gallen and a director of its Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance. He also teaches finance at the Universität Basel, Switzerland. His research interest is in asset pricing and derivative markets.
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Abstract

This study examines the behavior of stock prices around the publication of earnings revisions based on consensus forecasts for Swiss companies. Monthly consensus updates and daily abnormal returns are analyzed around announcement dates. Significant abnormal returns can be observed before and after announcement dates. The magnitude of the earnings revision is strongly and positively related to the abnormal returns in the fifty days prior to the publication date of the consensus. Statistically significant abnormal returns can be earned in the postannouncement period only for the portfolio of the stocks exhibiting the most positive earnings revision. Thus, the consensus can be used as valuable investment advice. The effect is particularly strong for stocks not included in the Swiss Market index.

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The Journal of Investing
Vol. 8, Issue 1
Spring 1999
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Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings Changes and the Performance of Swiss Stocks
Andreas Dische, Heinz Zimmermann
The Journal of Investing Feb 1999, 8 (1) 19-26; DOI: 10.3905/joi.1999.319386

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Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings Changes and the Performance of Swiss Stocks
Andreas Dische, Heinz Zimmermann
The Journal of Investing Feb 1999, 8 (1) 19-26; DOI: 10.3905/joi.1999.319386
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