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Abstract
Inflation is a perennial threat to the real value of portfolios, even though current inflation rates are low. To protect portfolios against inflation, cash, inflation-indexed bonds, equities, real estate, and commodities are the usual candidates. We examine each, plus other assets and, importantly, various kinds of liabilities, to examine their historical and prospective responses to expected and unexpected inflation. Our article is integrative, bringing together ideas and data from many different sources in one place.
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- Article
- Abstract
- THE WINDS OF INFLATION RETURN
- WHY NOW? MONETARY AND FISCAL CONCERNS
- COMPANION ARTICLE
- PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
- LIABILITIES AND ASSET-LIABILITY PORTFOLIOS
- SOME LESSONS OF HISTORY
- INFLATION, ASSET RETURNS, AND LIABILITY RETURNS
- INFLATION SHOCKS: THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE RETURNS OF MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
- LONG-TERM NOMINAL BONDS BECOME “CERTIFICATES OF CONFISCATION” IN INFLATIONARY EPISODES, THEN RECOVER IN DISINFLATION
- LIKE STOCKS, REAL ESTATE PERFORMS BEST IN PERIODS OF DISINFLATION
- IN THE VERY LONG RUN, COMMODITY PRICES HAVE RISEN, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS CONSUMER PRICES
- THE FUTURE OF INFLATION
- AS BABY BOOMERS RETIRE, US GOVERNMENT DEBT/GDP RATIO IS PROJECTED TO GROW BEYOND ITS FORMER WARTIME HIGH
- INDEBTED GOVERNMENTS HAVE A POWERFUL INCENTIVE TO KEEP NOMINAL INTEREST RATES, AND THUS INFLATION, LOW—IF THEY CAN
- INTERNATIONAL ISSUES
- CONCLUSION
- ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
- APPENDIX A
- ENDNOTES
- REFERENCES
- Info & Metrics
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