The Early Bird Catches the Intraday Trend

Abstract

Large movements during the night tend to have a lasting influence on the next trading session. By following the resulting trends, investors can benefit from fluctuations in the returns of major equity indices during the trading session. This study extends recent research on late-day trading and shows that trends are best caught early during the day. Intraday patterns are revealed using machine learning techniques, and new evidence on the origin of trends is presented. The defensive nature of intraday trend strategies is illustrated by considering the business cycle, investigating correlation with government bonds, and simulating the impact on a multi-asset portfolio.