Information Flow and Expected Inflation: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This article begins by ranking the absolute value of changes in the 10-year breakeven expected inflation (BEI) rates, calculated using 10-year Treasury notes and 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Next, a news search is conducted to determine what inflation-related information was released on days when the change in the BEI was greatest. The goal of the analysis is not only to see what information is associated with large changes in the BEI, but also to gain insight into the extent to which market participants accept the three competing theories of price determination: the classic monetary theory, the fiscal theory, and a “Keynesian” model that combines central bank setting of interest rates with the Phillips curve. The author finds that there was no mention of the money supply, the demand for money, or the rate of monetary growth on any of the days on which there was a large change in the BEI. Further, he finds that there was only one mention of the impact of government debt on a day that the BEI changed substantially. In comparison, there were 53 news items on large change days that either explicitly discussed Federal Reserve policy regarding interest rates or focused on the interaction between Fed policy, economic activity, and expected inflation. This suggests that market participants accept the “Keynesian” model of price determination.

TOPICS: Security analysis and valuation, portfolio theory