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Great Companies: Looking for Success Secrets in All the Wrong Places

Gabrielle Baum and Gary Smith
The Journal of Investing Fall 2015, 24 (3) 61-72; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2015.24.3.061
Gabrielle Baum
is an investment banking analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York, NY.
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  • For correspondence: gabbaum422@gmail.com
Gary Smith
is a professor in the Department of Economics at Pomona College in Claremont, CA.
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  • For correspondence: gsmith@pomona.edu
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Abstract

Many management books ransack lists of thriving companies and claim to have discovered these companies’ secrets to success. However, any group of companies (bad, good, or great) will inevitably have some characteristics in common. Finding such traits only confirms that we have looked for them and tells us nothing about whether these characteristics are responsible for past successes or are reliable predictors of future success. Nor do these traits tell us whether these companies’ stocks will be profitable investments.

We illustrate this concept by considering the companies praised in the best-selling books Good to Great and In Search of Excellence and then comparing them to Fortune’s Most Admired companies.

TOPICS: Fundamental equity analysis, portfolio theory, portfolio construction

  • © 2015 Pageant Media Ltd
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The Journal of Investing: 24 (3)
The Journal of Investing
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Fall 2015
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Great Companies: Looking for Success Secrets in All the Wrong Places
Gabrielle Baum, Gary Smith
The Journal of Investing Aug 2015, 24 (3) 61-72; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2015.24.3.061

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Great Companies: Looking for Success Secrets in All the Wrong Places
Gabrielle Baum, Gary Smith
The Journal of Investing Aug 2015, 24 (3) 61-72; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2015.24.3.061
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • DATA MINING
    • THE EFFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS
    • REGRESSION TO THE MEAN
    • GOOD TO GREAT
    • IN SEARCH OF EXCELLENCE
    • FORTUNE’S MOST ADMIRED LIST
    • METHODS
    • RESULTS
    • CONCLUSION
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