Valuation of Chinese Equity Based on Implied Growth Rates

Abstract

This article introduces a valuation method that can be used to back out the short-term expected growth rate implied in the prices of Chinese stocks. The proposed methodology involves reverse-engineering the traditional DCF models, which is then applied to a sample of 467 listed Chinese companies. Our findings show that the implied growth rate generally is much higher than its actual realization, with all median estimation errors larger than 90%. This study has practical applications for investors and traders, since it does not require access to private information or analysts’ estimations and provides a useful tool to critically evaluate Chinese stock prices.

TOPICS: Fundamental equity analysis, emerging