Investor Behavior, Reporting Intervals, and Hedge
Fund Stability

Abstract

In the 2000s, large hedge funds became major investors in illiquid assets. When returns were steady, inflows and outflows of capital balanced each other out. But in 2008 and 2009, investors removed capital at rapid rates despite depressed prices. In this article, the authors develop a Bayesian model where investors learn about a hedge fund’s returns and variance in discrete time. The model admits a dynamic where market-to-market losses created in illiquid markets can lead to additional redemption requests. The authors show by simulation that the probability of this cycle occurring and leading to a fund failure is positively related to the reporting interval of a fund’s performance to investors. As hedge funds have moved steadily toward reporting on a higher frequency, it is not surprising that many have enacted their gate provisions.

TOPICS: Real assets/alternative investments/private equity, factor-based models, simulations