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Article

Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History? A Progress Report after
10 Years

Wade D. Pfau
The Journal of Investing Winter 2011, 20 (4) 117-131; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2011.20.4.117
Wade D. Pfau
is an associate professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, Japan.
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  • For correspondence: wpfau@grips.ac.jp
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Abstract

We find evidence that retirees in 2000, in particular, are on course to potentially experience the worst retirement outcomes of any retiree since 1926. This holds for a wide variety of asset allocations and withdrawal rate strategies. Nominal wealth depletion is taking place more rapidly for 2000-era retirees than for retirees who even endured the Great Depression or the stagflation of the 1970s. Though moderate inflation during the past decade has resulted in a better situation for current withdrawal rates and real wealth for the 2000 retiree compared to some past retirees, this is hardly reassuring with further analysis based on the required future asset returns needed for sustainability and the market conditions facing retirees 10 years later. Our findings cast doubt as to whether the 4% withdrawal rate rule will be sustainable for turn-of-the-century retirees.

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The Journal of Investing: 20 (4)
The Journal of Investing
Vol. 20, Issue 4
Winter 2011
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Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History? A Progress Report after
10 Years
Wade D. Pfau
The Journal of Investing Nov 2011, 20 (4) 117-131; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2011.20.4.117

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Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History? A Progress Report after
10 Years
Wade D. Pfau
The Journal of Investing Nov 2011, 20 (4) 117-131; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2011.20.4.117
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • DATA AND METHODS FOR CALCULATING RETIREMENT OUTCOME MEASURES
    • OVERVIEW OF PAST RETIREMENT OUTCOMES
    • STRENGTH OF THE LINK BETWEEN EARLY AND LATE RETIREMENT
    • POSITIONING RECENT RETIREES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF EARLY RETIREMENT OUTCOMES
    • RETIREES IN 1929, 1966, AND 2000, AND THE ROLE OF CURRENT WITHDRAWAL RATES
    • WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THE 2000 RETIREE?
    • CONCLUSIONS
    • ENDNOTES
    • REFERENCES
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