Is Now the Time to Add Commodities to Your Portfolio?

Abstract

With the recent increase in equity volatility, commodity investments have garnered significant attention from investors. Previous research has found substantial benefits associated with commodity investments, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the consistency and general applicability of those benefits for equity investors. This article provides evidence that helps to resolve some of the uncertainty with regard to commodity investments. Specifically, based on a sample period of 36 years, it shows substantial benefits to commodity investments regardless of the equity style an investor pursues. Obtaining a significant benefit, however, requires a commodity allocation greater than 5%. Interestingly, adding a commodity exposure enhances an equity portfolio’s return only during periods when the Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates, which is consistent with the belief that a major attraction of commodities is that they serve as an inflation hedge. Furthermore, an allocation to commodities in a tactical asset allocation using monetary conditions consistently outperforms both a strategic commodities allocation and an all-equity portfolio.