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Noisy Signals: A Challenge to Tactical Strategies

Joseph H Davis and Christopher Philips
The Journal of Investing Spring 2009, 18 (1) 53-58; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/JOI.2009.18.1.053
Joseph H Davis
is a principal and chief economist at Fixed Income Group & Investment Counseling and Research, The Vanguard Group in Valley Forge, PA.
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  • For correspondence: joseph_davis@vanguard.com
Christopher Philips
is an investment analyst at Investment Strategy and Investment Counseling & Research, The Vanguard Group in Valley Forge, PA.
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  • For correspondence: christopher_philips@vanguard.com
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Abstract

This article examines various strategies aimed at repositioning an equity portfolio to a more defensive stance in anticipation of a recession or bear market. We examine the factors for success and document several critical reasons as to why implementing these strategies can undermine relative performance. In the end we find a balanced portfolio to be a viable alternative to many defensively minded tactical strategies.

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Spring 2009
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Noisy Signals: A Challenge to Tactical Strategies
Joseph H Davis, Christopher Philips
The Journal of Investing Feb 2009, 18 (1) 53-58; DOI: 10.3905/JOI.2009.18.1.053

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Noisy Signals: A Challenge to Tactical Strategies
Joseph H Davis, Christopher Philips
The Journal of Investing Feb 2009, 18 (1) 53-58; DOI: 10.3905/JOI.2009.18.1.053
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • IDENTIFYING A DEFENSIVE SECTOR
    • IDENTIFYING A PENDING ECONOMIC RECESSION OR BEAR MARKET
    • SIMULATING REAL-TIME PERFORMANCE OF DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES DURING RECESSIONS
    • WHY HAS DEFENSIVE EQUITY FAILED TO DELIVER?
    • CONCLUSION
    • ENDNOTES
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