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Primary Article

Luck versus Skill

Evaluating an Investment Manager's Track Record

Dennis M. Bein and Brett H. Wander
The Journal of Investing Winter 2002, 11 (4) 27-30; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2002.319521
Dennis M. Bein
A portfolio manager at Analytic Investors in Los Angeles, CA.
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Brett H. Wander
The chief investment strategist at Analytic Investors in Los Angeles, CA. Please direct comments and inquiries to Brett Wander.
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  • For correspondence: bwander@aninvestor.com
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Abstract

If a manager has an outstanding track record, how can we tell how much this past success is due to luck versus skill? The complex nature of active portfolio management makes this assessment very difficult. This article provides a conceptual framework for thinking about this issue. A meaningful track record should reflect a significant number of investment decisions. It is not sufficient to simply outperform over what might appear to be a significant time horizon.

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The Journal of Investing
Vol. 11, Issue 4
Winter 2002
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Luck versus Skill
Dennis M. Bein, Brett H. Wander
The Journal of Investing Nov 2002, 11 (4) 27-30; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2002.319521

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Luck versus Skill
Dennis M. Bein, Brett H. Wander
The Journal of Investing Nov 2002, 11 (4) 27-30; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2002.319521
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