Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Current Issue
  • Past Issues
  • Videos
  • Submit an article
  • More
    • About JOI
    • Editorial Board
    • Published Ahead of Print (PAP)
  • IPR Logo
  • About Us
  • Journals
  • Publish
  • Advertise
  • Videos
  • Webinars
  • More
    • Awards
    • Article Licensing
    • Academic Use
  • Follow IIJ on LinkedIn
  • Follow IIJ on Twitter

User menu

  • Sample our Content
  • Request a Demo
  • Log in

Search

  • ADVANCED SEARCH: Discover more content by journal, author or time frame
The Journal of Investing
  • IPR Logo
  • About Us
  • Journals
  • Publish
  • Advertise
  • Videos
  • Webinars
  • More
    • Awards
    • Article Licensing
    • Academic Use
  • Sample our Content
  • Request a Demo
  • Log in
The Journal of Investing

The Journal of Investing

ADVANCED SEARCH: Discover more content by journal, author or time frame

  • Home
  • Current Issue
  • Past Issues
  • Videos
  • Submit an article
  • More
    • About JOI
    • Editorial Board
    • Published Ahead of Print (PAP)
  • Follow IIJ on LinkedIn
  • Follow IIJ on Twitter
Primary Article

Predicting Foreign Exchange Directional Moves

Can Simple Fundamentals Help?

Matthew R. Morey and Marc W. Simpson
The Journal of Investing Spring 2001, 10 (1) 43-51; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2001.319450
Matthew R. Morey
An associate professor of finance at the Lubin School of Business at Pace University in New York City.
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Marc W. Simpson
An assistant professor of finance at Marshall University in Huntington, WV.
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Article
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF (Subscribers Only)
Loading

Abstract

Researchers have documented that economic fundamentals provide poor predictions of future exchange rates. The authors ask instead how well basic models of foreign exchange determination predict the direction of future exchange rate changes. The forward rate is consistently a poor predictor of the direction of the future spot exchange rate across different currencies, time periods, and term lengths. The authors also find, however, that after 1984, a purchasing power parity equilibrium exchange rate predicts the future direction of the spot rate quite well. This is especially the case when the equilibrium exchange rate implied by purchasing power parity diverges strongly from the spot rate. These results indicate that investors should pay attention to purchasing power parity exchange rates as indicative of future directional changes in exchange rates.

  • © 2001 Pageant Media Ltd

Don’t have access? Click here to request a demo

Alternatively, Call a member of the team to discuss membership options

US and Overseas: +1 646-931-9045

UK: 0207 139 1600

Log in using your username and password

Forgot your user name or password?
PreviousNext
Back to top

Explore our content to discover more relevant research

  • By topic
  • Across journals
  • From the experts
  • Monthly highlights
  • Special collections

In this issue

The Journal of Investing
Vol. 10, Issue 1
Spring 2001
  • Table of Contents
  • Index by author
Download PDF
Article Alerts
Sign In to Email Alerts with your Email Address
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on The Journal of Investing.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Predicting Foreign Exchange Directional Moves
(Your Name) has sent you a message from The Journal of Investing
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the The Journal of Investing web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Citation Tools
Predicting Foreign Exchange Directional Moves
Matthew R. Morey, Marc W. Simpson
The Journal of Investing Feb 2001, 10 (1) 43-51; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2001.319450

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
Save To My Folders
Share
Predicting Foreign Exchange Directional Moves
Matthew R. Morey, Marc W. Simpson
The Journal of Investing Feb 2001, 10 (1) 43-51; DOI: 10.3905/joi.2001.319450
del.icio.us logo Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo CiteULike logo Facebook logo Google logo LinkedIn logo Mendeley logo
Tweet Widget Facebook Like LinkedIn logo

Jump to section

  • Article
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF (Subscribers Only)
  • PDF (Subscribers Only)

Similar Articles

Cited By...

  • No citing articles found.
  • Google Scholar

More in this TOC Section

  • Shorting Companies That Restate Previously Issued Financial Statements
  • On the Teaching of Financial Economics
  • The ETF Free Lunch
Show more Primary Article
LONDON
One London Wall, London, EC2Y 5EA
United Kingdom
+44 207 139 1600
 
NEW YORK
41 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010
USA
+1 646 931 9045
pm-research@pageantmedia.com
 

Stay Connected

  • Follow IIJ on LinkedIn
  • Follow IIJ on Twitter

MORE FROM PMR

  • Home
  • Awards
  • Investment Guides
  • Videos
  • About PMR

INFORMATION FOR

  • Academics
  • Agents
  • Authors
  • Content Usage Terms

GET INVOLVED

  • Advertise
  • Publish
  • Article Licensing
  • Contact Us
  • Subscribe Now
  • Log In
  • Update your profile
  • Give us your feedback

© 2021 Pageant Media Ltd | All Rights Reserved | ISSN: 1068-0896 | E-ISSN: 2168-8613

  • Site Map
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Cookies
  • Privacy Policy